A $607 Jewelry Bonney card entering the pool is what flipped the Captains Pack from negative to positive EV on the afternoon of August 14, 2026. The window lasted 11 minutes.
What entered the pool
Before 4:55 PM PT, the Bonney (2025 One Piece JPN) wasn't in the pool at all. When our tracking picked up the 4:55 PM PT snapshot, it was sitting there at 2.0% odds and a $607 value, contributing $12.13 to EV on a $100 pack. That single card accounted for more than the entire EV gap that pushed the pack positive.
To put that in context: at the before-window reading (4:50 PM PT), pack EV was -10.6%, meaning expected return was about $89.40. At open (4:55 PM PT), it jumped to +2.3%, roughly $102.30. By peak (5:02 PM PT) it was at +5.3%, or about $105.30. The Bonney's $12.13 EV contribution was the difference-maker, and no other card changed odds or value meaningfully between those two moments.
The peak and what else was in the pool
At peak, the three grail-tier cards were all present and unchanged from open: a 2022 One Piece Shanks at $5,481 (0.03% odds, $1.64 EV contribution), a 2025 One Piece Monkey D. Luffy at $3,634 (0.03% odds, $1.09 contribution), and a 2025 One Piece Marshall D. Teach at $3,053 (0.03% odds, $0.92 contribution). Those three grails together added about $3.65 to EV and were stable across all four snapshots, so they aren't what moved the needle here.
Between open and peak, a handful of lineup cards appeared that weren't in the before-window pool: a 2023 One Piece Monkey D. Luffy ($177, 2.0%), a Boa Hancock 2024 One Piece at $177 (2.0%), a Kaido 2024 One Piece at $85, and a second Crocodile 2026 One Piece slot. Those additions pushed peak EV a few points above open, from +2.3% to +5.3%.
Pool size held at 53 cards across all four snapshots, so the EV moves here were driven by composition changes, not by drain.
How it closed
By 5:06 PM PT, the Bonney (2025 One Piece JPN) had been pulled. Her $12.13 EV contribution was gone, and the Shanks grail repriced slightly, dropping from $5,481 to $5,360 and pulling its EV contribution from $1.64 down to $1.61. A few other lineup cards also disappeared between peak and close. The result: EV fell to -9.6% at close, right back in negative territory. The window ran from 4:55 PM PT to somewhere before 5:06 PM PT, with peak EV of +5.3% recorded at 5:02 PM PT, about 7 minutes in.